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Global coffee markets are heading toward a historic year, but short-term risks remain. A new USDA outlook projects global coffee production to rise 6% to 189.7 million 60kg bags in 2026/27, with exports expected to climb 8.9% to 158.9 million bags and consumption reaching a record 179.7 million bags. This growth is largely driven by strong output from Brazil, Vietnam, Ethiopia, and Uganda (Perfect Daily Grind).
However, this positive outlook is paired with near-term supply concerns. Brazil’s 2026 harvest is currently only 64% complete, falling behind the five-year average of 70% due to unseasonal and persistent rains across key growing regions (LIVE Woodi Peck’s). These conditions are raising quality concerns due to uneven drying and are also causing logistical delays (LIVE Woodi Peck’s).
Meanwhile, Ethiopia is taking strategic steps to strengthen its position in the global market. A new cross-border e-commerce platform has been launched, enabling the direct export of roasted Ethiopian coffee and connecting local roasters and packagers with international buyers (Ethiopiatoday). This initiative is part of a broader effort to boost export competitiveness and expand value-added agricultural trade.
For B2B buyers, the takeaway is clear: while a record global supply is forming for 2026/27, short-term volatility remains due to Brazil’s delayed harvest. Danka Coffee Export continues to source verified, traceable green bean lots to help partners navigate this evolving market with confidence.